Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 38 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 38 · MIA → LHR

departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 7:24 AM GMT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LHR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

LHR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 38 · MIA → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?