Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 457 · MIA → SJU

departs 12:58 PM ET · arrives 3:43 PM AT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 457 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?