Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 517 · MIA → XPL

departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 11:16 AM CST

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at XPL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XPL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XPL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

XPL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 517 · MIA → XPL

Odds over time

How late will it get to XPL?