Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 523 · ORD → DCA

departs 10:25 AM CT · arrives 1:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 523 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?