Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 535 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 535 · LAX → CLT

departs 1:03 PM PT · arrives 8:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 535 · LAX → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?