Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 746 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 746 · PHL → NCE

departs 6:17 PM ET · arrives 7:49 AM CET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at NCE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to NCE?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

NCE (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 746 · PHL → NCE

Odds over time

How late will it get to NCE?