Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 751 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 751 · LAS → MIA

departs 1:24 PM PT · arrives 9:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 751 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?