Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 791 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 791 · ORD → MIA

departs 2:35 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 791 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?