AA 906 · GRU → MIA

departs 12:19 AM -03 · arrives 7:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRU

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 906 · GRU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?