Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 956 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 956 · MIA → GCM

departs 1:49 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at GCM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GCM?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GCM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

GCM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 956 · MIA → GCM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GCM?