Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AC 1019 · YYZ → SAT

departs 7:31 PM EDT · arrives 10:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from YYZ are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1019 · YYZ → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?