Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1019 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AC 1019 · YYZ → SAT

departs 7:29 PM EDT · arrives 9:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ AC's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1019 · YYZ → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?