Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 51 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AF 51 · IAD → CDG

departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 6:22 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDG?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 51 · IAD → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?