Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 51 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AF 51 · IAD → CDG

departs 6:32 PM ET · arrives 7:01 AM CET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CDG?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CDG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 51 · IAD → CDG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CDG?