AM 470 · MEX → IAH

departs 2:56 PM CST · arrives 6:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 470 · MEX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?