Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 470 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AM 470 · MEX → IAH

departs 3:29 PM CST · arrives 6:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 470 · MEX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?