AS 1415 · OGG → HNL

departs 10:03 AM HT · arrives 10:55 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ 10am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip3.54 in

HNL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1415 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?