Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 1415 · OGG → HNL

departs 10:16 AM HT · arrives 11:09 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 10am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ OGG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1415 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?