Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 1459 · YEG → SEA

departs 7:59 AM MDT · arrives 8:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 3.4 in of snow forecast at YEG that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YEG (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.05 in

SEA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1459 · YEG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?