Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 1459 · YEG → SEA

departs 7:59 AM MDT · arrives 8:48 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of snow forecast at YEG that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ 7am departures from YEG are usually not late

↓ YEG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YEG (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1459 · YEG → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?