AS 233 · BOI → SNA

took off 11:23 AM MT · landed 12:14 PM PT (scheduled 10:45 AM MT → 12:08 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · BOI → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?