Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 233 · BOI → SNA

departs 10:50 AM MT · arrives 12:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 233 · BOI → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?