Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 267 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

departs 11:09 AM HT · arrives 8:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.59 in

SEA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?