Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 267 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

departs 11:09 AM HT · arrives 7:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at HNL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 11am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?