AS 7011 · ANC → OME

departs 9:12 AM AKT · arrives 10:58 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at OME more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OME?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at OME that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into OME at that hour are usually not late

↓ OME usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OME (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7011 · ANC → OME

Odds over time

How late will it get to OME?