Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7011 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 7011 · ANC → OME

departs 9:15 AM AKT · arrives 11:02 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at OME more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OME?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at OME that day

↑ Gusts to 37 kt forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into OME at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

OME (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7011 · ANC → OME

Odds over time

How late will it get to OME?