Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 932 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

departs 10:36 AM HT · arrives 7:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.23 in

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?