Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 932 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

departs 10:36 AM HT · arrives 7:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ 10am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.51 in

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 932 · OGG → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?