AV 230 · MDE → SJU

departs 11:21 AM -05 · arrives 3:13 PM AT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SJU that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDE

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 230 · MDE → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?