BW 798 · POS → MIA

departs 6:06 PM AST · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at POS

Weather at each end

POS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,286 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BW 798 · POS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?