Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4315 · IAH → HSV
departs 1:16 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.