Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4315 · IAH → HSV
departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 3:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HSV (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.