Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4819 · GSO → IAD
departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
GSO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at GSO that day
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.