Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4819 · GSO → IAD
departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at GSO that day
Weather at each end
GSO (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.