Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
C5 4856 · IAH → CRP
departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
CRP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.