Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4856 · IAH → CRP
departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 9:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Odds over time
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CRP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CRP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CRP
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CRP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.