Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4922 · ROA → IAD
departs 6:13 AM ET · arrives 7:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROA
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.