Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4922 · ROA → IAD
departs 6:12 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.