Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4936 · IAH → LRD
departs 7:03 PM CT · arrives 8:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LRD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LRD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LRD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.