Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
C5 4936 · IAH → LRD
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LRD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LRD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LRD that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
LRD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LRD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.