Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 394 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

CM 394 · TPA → PTY

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 3pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 394 · TPA → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?