Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 394 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

CM 394 · TPA → PTY

departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 5:48 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 394 · TPA → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?