CM 716 · AUS → PTY

departs 3:33 PM CT · arrives 7:58 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 716 · AUS → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?