Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 716 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 716 · AUS → PTY

departs 3:37 PM CT · arrives 7:58 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 716 · AUS → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?