DL 10 · MSP → LHR

took off 6:19 PM CT · landed 7:20 AM GMT (scheduled 6:05 PM CT → 6:41 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LHR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

LHR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 10 · MSP → LHR

Odds over time

How late did it get to LHR?