Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 11 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

DL 11 · LAX → MEL

departs 11:16 PM PT · arrives 8:16 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MEL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MEL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 11pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEL (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 11 · LAX → MEL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEL?