Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1533 · ORD → MSP
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.