Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1538 · MIA → LGA
departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.