Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1578 · ORD → MSP
departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:27 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.