Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1641 · EWR → MSP
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 8:13 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30 12%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.